Adj +/- The Best Way to Measure NBA Players Effectivness

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Here it is guys. The official top players in the NBA. This is based 70% on 2008-2009 rankings, but includes data from the last six years, with diminishing amount of value the farther back in time you go.

If you don't know what Adj +/- is, here is a refresher. It is a value that tracks how many points you help your team outscore the opponent by over the avg player. That means that if Kobe bryant has an adj. plus/minus of 6.00, he makes the Lakers 6 points better per 100 possessions. What's absolutely fantastic about Adj +/- is that it can separate your defensive and offensive contributions to your team.

For instance..Kevin Garnett is a very good offensive player with and offensive Adj +/- of 4.47. This means that if an avg player played PF for the Celtics instead of KG they may score 100 points per 100 possessions. But with KG, they will score 104.47. But KG's real contribution is defensive. He has an amazing defensive adj +/- of 8.74. Which means that opponents will score 8.74 points less per 100 possessions. In simple terms this means...

That if you took an average team (A) and put KG in at power forward and played against average team (B), KG's team would win 104-91 (supposing each team had 100 possessions). KG makes his team 13 points better, 4 at the offensive end, and 9 at the defensive end.

Adjusted plus/minus is quite simply, THE BEST STATISTIC WE HAVE FOR MEASURING HOW GOOD A PLAYER IS.

So here it is the top ten DEFENSIVE players in the NBA

1.Garnett, Kevin 8.74
2.Bogut, Andrew 8.21
3.Johnson, Amir 8.05
4.Hayes, Chuck 7.31
5.Przybilla, Joel 7.04
6.Iguodala, Andre 6.64
7.Hilario, Nene 6.56
8.Ming, Yao 5.7
9.Young, Thaddeus 5.7
10.Camby, Marcus 5.66

Noteables
11. Lamar Odom
12. Ron Artest
22. Tim Duncan (injury plagued)
35. Dwight Howard (overrated..defense is more than just blocks people!)
38. Shane Battier (overrated, but still good)
152. Kobe Bryant ("Kobe is a terrible off the ball defender"--Phil Jackson)

The best OFFENSIVE players in the NBA

1.Nash, Steve 11.28
2.Wade, Dwyane 10.66
3.James, LeBron 10.16
4.Paul, Chris 9.36
5.Redd, Michael 7.82
6.Anthony, Carmelo 7.73
7.Bryant, Kobe 7.57
8.Billups, Chauncey 7.36
9.Bosh, Chris 5.65
10.Carter, Vince 5.61

Steve Nash is the greatest offensive player we have seen since adj. plus minus has been calculated. Think of all the things he does that does not show up in the box score, running the offense, always making the perfect play, the hockey assist.




The Best OVERALL players in the NBA

Off def Std Total
Team Player Minutes APM APM Err APM
1. Wade, Dwyane 3,048 10.66 2.96 1.16 13.61
2. Garnett, Kevin 1,642 4.47 8.74 1.07 13.21
3. James, LeBron 3,054 10.16 3.03 1.09 13.19
4. Paul, Chris 2,888 9.36 3.35 1.42 12.71
5. Nash, Steve 2,484 11.28 -2.45 1.11 8.83
6. Odom, Lamar 2,203 3.28 5.52 0.95 8.81
7. Iguodala, Andre 3,269 1.96 6.64 1.19 8.61
8. Lewis, Rashard 2,859 5.17 2.94 0.96 8.11
9. Ming, Yao 2,454 1.59 5.70 1.03 7.29
10. Kidd, Jason 2,814 3.31 3.35 0.98 6.66
11. Gasol, Pau 2,857 4.53 2.11 0.92 6.64
12. Nowitzki, Dirk 2,977 4.83 1.67 1.16 6.50
13. Young, Thaddeus 2,580 0.67 5.70 1.08 6.37
14. Bosh, Chris 2,884 5.65 0.54 1.10 6.19
15. Johnson, Amir 906 -1.86 8.05 1.47 6.18
16. Artest, Ron 2,343 0.83 5.01 0.93 5.83
17. Parker, Tony 2,386 4.48 1.29 1.18 5.77
18. Bryant, Kobe 2,824 7.57 -1.95 1.10 5.63
19. Jamison, Antawn 3,025 4.26 1.31 1.11 5.58
20. Duncan, Tim 2,454 1.81 3.60 1.22 5.40

Notables
23. Rudy Fernandez
28. Danilo Gallinari (he's going to be a STAR people)
29. Carmelo Anthony (his defense is greatly improving, what hurts him most is that six years worth of data were used, much of which when he was a terrible defender, he will rank higher this year.)
43. Brandon Roy (below avg. defender)
96. Dwight Howard (most overrated player in the league)

Other mentionable points...Manu Ginobili ranked 4th adj. plus minus in 2007-2008...however, he was injured for most of last season and therefore is not seen towards the top of the rankings. A healthy Manu, is one of the VERY best players in the NBA. TD ranked 3rd in 2008, his injuries also contributed to his slide.


Here is the Data Set provided by Steve Ilardi for you all to look at.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AnGzTFTtSPx_dFVrZXdHNlNZQUJadllKUm1Ld294WkE&hl=en